KWCP Daily Roundup May 18 Uncertainty Continues But Market Marches On

NASDAQ bounce this morning. Tech looks strong this morning as the Darth Trump of the Russian Empire Saga continues, technology and biotechnology seem the sectors that benefit most from the demise of the Commander. Today we highlight three instances of cautious investing on every pullback in three varying stages of development which make sense. Companies like Tesla (TSLA, $310.53) continue to trade at such a high multiple to (negative) earnings. Companies like this have a visionary leader, and much like Steve Wynn (WYNN, $123.52) on the Vegas Strip, on a global scale, it is very hard to bet one way or another on such idealistic chieftains. They are habitual huge bet takers and performing upon those ventures despite a large amount of turmoil, strife, and controversy. But Wall Street loves these Disney-esque gamblers that create this dreamy, futuristic world. Trading in and out cautiously, on every pullback, seems to be the right step-wise catalyst strategy here since the potential upside still remains great.

Netflix (NFLX, $156.42) also continues to roar on up +3.24 based on the installed base of users and its gentle redefinition of content distribution and now creation of content. We believe in this story for the short and medium term, but often feel for the longer term, NFLX becomes a great complimentary piece for content conglomerates as they bump into other giants in the future. Similarly, taking position in and out cautiously, on every pullback, watching for positive catalysts unless a deal-breaker arises, seems to be the right step-wise strategy here since the potential upside still remains great.

Along the lines of the biotech, the bounce back of Valeant (VRX, $13.51) because they stated they are on track from debt repayment seems to be a good harbringer for the company, however the debt is still a long way from being paid in full or refinanced. But again this company is a long way off from it's $200-plus Pershing Square stock price and selling off assets which were paid for at a premium acquisition price doesn't make for sound policy. On the natural resources front, with Rio Tinto (RIO, $40.60) sniffing around their premium copper assets, there is no doubt that Freeport-McMoran (FCX, $11.40) possesses premium assets, and if they have ability to navigate geopolitical risk and gain strength in management, there continues to be considerable upside here as well. At the risk of being redundant, trading in and out cautiously, on every pullback, seems to be the right step-wise catalyst strategy here since the potential upside still remains great.

KWCP Daily Roundup May 17 Steady Caution Amidst Choppy Waters

Retail stocks continue to lag. I would continue to lay off the entire retail sector including commercial real estate assets and pick selectively on those that have promising e-commerce programs that have been jointly thrown out with the sector bath water. Walmart (WMT, $75.12) is the obvious choice here with the lead acquisition of Jet.com, followed by several other subsequent acquisitions by ecom shop-a-holic Mark Lore. Target (TGT, $55.04) has been lagging due to their well documented failures with the Cartwheel app but a hedged bet on a company with historic drive to succeed may pay off on the long term.

Mall-based retailers are obvious short candidates at this point though finding one with enough meat on the bones may be difficult. Macy's (M, $23.01) and Nordstrom's (JWN, $40.81) were the cream of the crop but the 'Fast Times at Mallrat High' party has ended for these prom queens and we are headed into a significant redefinition or buyout stage. Kohl's (KSS, $37.09) remains scrappy and hybrid of the off price retailers though TJ Maxx (TJX, $74.77) seems to fare better amidst the bargainers, and the move to trade up and down within a bracketed range seems to be the correct move here as KSS buys back stock and short-sellers jump upon the 'short'-lived burst. Barnes and Nobles (BKS, $7.40), Sears Holding (SHLD, $7.96), and JC Penney (JCP, $4.67) seemed doom to failure, reorganization, or worse (barring a typhoon level trend change), the companies seem headed toward an ominous fate. If you can find borrow, congratulations but the bones are bare and perhaps a brothy soup is all that is left.

Manufacturers that relied on retail are suffering a similar fate. For example, Under Armor (UA, $17.70) and Lululemon (LULU, $49.14), have been beaten back. UA recovered with a upside surprise in the Q1 earnings but the pullback in LULU coupled with the buyout rumors may make it the only palatable pick in the lot today. Further pullback in UA, a simmering down of Kevin Plank's Make America Great sentiment, and further Tier 1 sponsorship catalysts into international and soccer, make UA a champion on the ropes that still has knockout power in their roundhouse.

Speaking of beaten back, regarding the United Airlines (UAL, $76.18) bump up after the social media fiasco, the climb seems to have lost steam and the 'short squeeze of those negative naysayers' the stock has maybe subsided. Those hedgies may move to other fast money pastures now that they've collected their knee-jerk emotional reaction premium. So look for the stock to settle back down despite the fear and propaganda of UAL doubling in price. Longer term, Jet Blue Airlines (JBLU, $20.96) is the winner and better operator in that pack and longer term maybe a better play.

In the technology space, AI, autonomous driving, and AR/VR drive the trends. And we believe Nvidia (NVDA, $127.72) is the speedy chip company with the gaming history to drive that speed in the processing, and makes the long term play en-vogue right now. It's a dog eat dog world these and Intel (INTC, $35.04) recent purchase of Mobileye (MBLY, $61.69) signals their concern on the issue. Internet 'real estate' like Etsy (ETSY, $12.94) and Snapchat (SNAP, $19.90) still hold much value despite rumors of their demise. For higher beta trading transactions, trading these names within a range also makes sense here.